Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Election night 1976 part 2


Mondale victory. Still despite the air of confidence the group of Carter aids keep running down the list of states that made up the democrat's base, doing and redoing the electoral math over and over again. They had all agreed on a solid base of 214 votes of the 270 needed to put their guy in the oval. They made up a column of states in the north,midwest, and west that they placed in the president's column and then made a group of 170 electoral votes in the toss up grouping.

As the polls closed across the nation Carter began to work the phones. He called every democratic congressional candidate that lost their race that night. Jody Powell would later say it was to show that "someone had to remember the losers, even when everyone else was looking at the winners". He also called supporters to thank them for their service to his campaign. Mayor Daley of Chicago was called, the forecasts coming out of Illinois were mixed at best and Carter wanted a detailed reading on the state's progress. Daley was holding several vote tallies from several democratic strongholds around Chicago, as a backup in case Carter needed a late surge as the night wore on.  In the end Daley's efforts were either noble or helpful, and Carter lost the state.

A shift was slowly taking place inside both the White house and the Omni Capital suite, the ford group began to seem like children growing tired of playing a game they kept losing, while the Carter group started to carry a kind of natural and systematic mental shift from cautious optimism to middle uncertainty. They were slowly running out of southern states and Ford's western Second wind was just moments away.  Earlier in the evening the Carter aides were letting out cries of joy as the results were called over the television, but now both parties were now prepared for the predicted turn in the candidate's electoral fortunes.

For the first time ever in the history of Televised presidential elections, the results of both the national totals and the state by state count was not placed on giant hand drawn  boards. They would instead be projected up on the screen complete with an image of the state and photos of the two major party candidates. The box that would rest beside the anchor would also be complete with the vote total currently in and the projected winner of the state at that given moment.

Each network had their own format and each had it's own system of election analysis hard at work behind the scenes looking over all raw statistical data and projections as it was being handed to them. They all followed roughly the same method of deciding a projected winner. NBC followed two tracking polls, one that was from major precincts from every state that showed a rough but summed up total of a statewide vote, the other covered trends in the voting and was complete with on the ground updates provided by each state.

CBS had three different teams of Statisticians going over the raw election returns from across the country and promptly broke the information into voter categories like age group and race. Turning the data into simple talking points for the on camera talent.
ABC had three decision desks with private computers that gave direct relays to the anchor team at the studio. All sample precinct data was provided to all the networks by the National Election Serivce. Every single member of all three teams had to be in total agreement before any kind of announcement or decision was brought to the anchor's desk.

28 percent of Americans were tuned into John Chancellor and David Brinkley, while ABC and it's team of election night headed by a young Barbara Walters garnered 18 percent of the public attention, while 26 percent choose to tune into either public broadcasting or local news channels for their coverage. But the person who received the biggest share of the audience that night was the most trusted journalist of his day and a man who would become sanomies with some of modern history's most important moments, Walter Cronkite captured 30 percent.

After the opening of election night coverage on all networks and the early calling of Kentucky for Carter and Indiana for Ford. The only other early states called for the President was Nebraska, Connecticut, and Dole's homestate of Kansas.  After that a large rundown of states were called for Carter, from the east to nearly all of the south. From Massachusetts, and rhode island, to west virginia and tennessee. North Carolina was called for Carter as was his homestead of Georgia and it's electoral rich neighbor Florida. After that Georgia's left and right neighbors Alabama and South Carolina were also given to Governor Carter. Carter had a clear majority of the African American vote and his massive regional appeal in the south gave him a lock on every single state in the south safe for two that were still too close to call, the states of Virginia and Mississippi.

NBC created for the first time a giant electronic map of the United States that would as it turned out provide a odd imagery contrast from the election of 1976 to current elections was the color each party received when they won a certain state, In future elections the Republican won state would be drawn on the electrol map grid as Red and the Democrat won state would be a royal blue. In 1976 a state would little up as red if it was for Carter and Blue if it was for Ford. Thoughout the evening the president could be heard yelling "go Blue, Go Blue!", maybe the only and last time a Republican presidential candidate would pray for a state to turn Blue.

After the first southern and eastern states that went to Carter, the networks started to dramatically suggest a comeback for the president, that less then an hour later was turned into a political reality on it's electronic map. Every single state in the west turned blue for Ford. All of the Rocky Mountain states from Montana to Colorado and New Mexico.  Most of what was leftover from Carter's early victories in the interior lowlands also want to Ford as did every state in the great plains region. Before long the only states now left on the table were the battleground states, the three states that makeup the west coast, and the northern industrial states that both candidates would have to earn a majority of to be named the night's winner.

The six northern states New York,New Jersey,Pennsylvania, Michigan,Illinois,and Ohio had a total of 158 electoral votes between them and roughly half 270 needed to earn a four to eight year stay at pennsyvania ave. They also along with Texas and Calfornia made up the big eight that both camps had calculationed into their strategists for victory. It was universially agreed at this point that Ford would have to win the lion's share of the big eight to pull off a come from behind Truman style victory.

Ford was solid in Calfornia, and even though it gets called late in the evening, would be a huge victory for the president. Texas was the south and Carter had captured that entire region's imagination, so Texas was all but laminated under Carter's column with the other deep south states from the get go. So Ford was going to have to win four of the six northern states. Michigan was his home state and it was called early for their favorite son, and the president's advisors felt pretty confident about their strength and ad buying ability in the midwestern states, so Illinois was going to be tough but would end up being a Ford Victory also. The President wasn't concerned with Mayor Daley seating on democratic strongholds, he knew that the Republicans were powerhouses in the southern Illinois and could withstand any late night Cartwer surge in voting.

New Jersey was going to be close too, and hard to read because media ad buy in New York from both camps was seeping into Jersey. In the end the president was able to pull off a new jersey win and capture it's 17 electoral college votes by a close 2 percent margin of victory. The race was always going to come down to Ohio and both candidates would need it's 25 electoral votes to win. In Fact on election eve the president and the first lady held their campaign's final rally there in Ohio before going to Michigan for the night. As it would later turn out Ford campaigned in the wrong areas of ohio. He campaigned hard in Columbus, and made a brief stopover at Cininnati. But Columbus provided to be a place that was already safely won by the president, while Cininnati and Cleveland were leaning hard towards Jimmy Carter. Had Ford campaigned in Cleveland the outcome of the election might had been different.

By midnight the networks had slowed down their returns, too many states were close and no one wanted to call anything without total certainty that it was going to it's proper winner. Then at around 12:05 CBS called Oregon for Carter, and then nearly three hours later a very embarrassed Walter Cronkite had to inform the viewing public that the state was being pulled back under the uncertain column. It would eventually go to ford, who won it be a margin of 0.17 percent over Carter.

Hamilton Jordan who had been completely confident at the beginning of the night was now looking at the map of called states and started to panic. He would later claim"  When I saw the ten or twelve states that were out, it occurred to me that the thing could slip away from us." Ham Jordan wasn't just being a worried papa looking over the final uncertain moments of a national campaign, he did have good reason to get scared. The first results coming out of Hawaii were bad, and it was not out of the realm of possibility that all the states still undecided would go to the president.

The hotel room at the Omni was starting to get filled with guests. Martin Luther King Sr. was there as was Coretta King.  Jordan and Carter went into the master bedroom to work the phones and look over the returns. Caddell was getting reports on the ground from across the country and would brief Carter from time to time. It was Caddell that first informed Carter that he would lose New Jersey and that New York was still a jig zag puzzle of a situation. Carter then personally phoned New York City Mayor Abraham Beame and was reassured by Beame that his big win in Manhattan would be enough to carry the state. Caddell then called Mayor Rizzo of Philadelphia who reported that Carter was 260,000 votes ahead of Ford and would easily win the state.

When Carter heard the news about the margin of Victory in Philadelphia he replied with a smile "Well, he promised me three hundred thousand, but we'll take it". After Pennsylvania was called by the networks, all the major northern states were also finally given official winners. Michigan for Ford and New York for Carter. Illinois and Ohio were still yet to be called. Half an hour after Pennsylvania the networks called Iowa,Arizona,Oklahoma, and Virginia for the President. Virginia would prove to be the only southern state that Carter wouldn't win that evening. The president won it by a narrow margin and both Candidate's were glued to the T.V. sets as the state was being called. After losing Virginia Carter turned to Caddell and said they should certainly think about moving the Mason-Dixon line to North Carolina.
Became that his big win in Manhattan would be enough to carry the state. Caddell then called Mayor Rizzo of Philadelphia who reported that Carter was 260,000 votes ahead of Ford and would easily win the state.

When Carter heard the news about the margin of Victory in Philadelphia he replied with a smile "Well, he promised me three hundred thousand, but we'll take it". After Pennsylvania was called by the networks, all the major northern states were also finally given official winners. Michigan for Ford and New York for Carter. Illinois and Ohio were still yet to be called. Half an hour after Pennsylvania the networks called Iowa,Arizona,Oklahoma, and Virginia for the President. Virginia would prove to be the only southern state that Carter wouldn't win that evening. The president won it by a narrow margin and both Candidate's were glued to the T.V. sets as the state was being called. After losing Virginia Carter turned to Caddell and said they should certainly think about moving the Mason-dixon line to North Carolina.

By 2 a.m. Missouri and Louisiana, were called for Carter, who was feeling very good about all the time and energy the spent getting a late endorsement for Louisiana's governor Edwin Edwards and the campaign stop through New Orleans that had taken place just days earlier. Carter's total was now 261 according to NBC and CBS, and ABC having him at 257. He was in the lead and now only a few votes away from being declared the winner. The networks were divided on what states the democratic nominee would need to win the white house. CBS and NBC claimed that hawaii and Mississippi were unclaimed by any candidate and that Carter would need to win both (a total of 11 electoral votes) to be declared the winner. ABC had projected Carter the winner of Mississippi but noted that he was still going to need a win in Hawaii(4 votes) or Wisconsin(11 votes) to go over the top. Either way the democrats were going to have to win 11 points.

Democrats always win in Hawaii, but the first returns looked very bleak for Carter, even though it was considered a sure thing for the Georgian only hours earlier. CBS had reported that Ford was 99 percent ahead of Carter in the nation's 49th state, but it was actually a mistake in reporting. In reality what they meant to say was that 99 percent of the vote was in and it had been Carter's all along. NBC moved Hawaii into the Carter column at around 2:30 A.M. giving him a 265 electoral vote count. He was now just five short of election.

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